For half a decade investors’ love affair with gold has been steadfast. The precious metal caught the tailwind of the commodities boom in the mid-2000s and acted as a hideout during the financial crisis. Recently, it has lured investors as an inflation hedge, reaching a record above US$1,400.
But with the mighty U.S. economy revving up, there’s a new girl in town. As gold’s rally falters, oil is beginning to catch the eye of investors again, driving the price toward US$100 a barrel and providing a potential new driver for a stock market rally that is looking a little faded.
“As the world seemed to be falling apart, investors headed to traditional safe havens and gold went up,” said John Stephenson, a portfolio manager at First Asset Investment Management in Toronto. “Now, the world still isn’t a perfect place, but it’s improving and there’s better growth and investors are starting to look at assets that have lagged, oil especially.”
Like all commodities, oil is an investment that is largely dependent on the state of the global economy. But where gold and other precious metals such as silver benefit from economic weakness and uncertainty, oil thrives best when economic conditions are stable and growing.
Both these attributes, stability and growth, have been in short supply since the financial crisis ended in late 2008, particularly in the developed world, where the United States and Europe have struggled to sustain their recoveries.
With two of its major markets underperforming, oil has depended almost entirely on emerging markets to fan its demand. While that has been far from negative for oil, which fell 48 cents to US$89.11 at Friday’s close, it has prevented it from gaining any sustained momentum with investors.
“If you look at oil it has almost entirely been a China story,” Mr. Stephenson said. “But now the U.S. economy is improving, Europe is improving and it’s looking more like a global growth story and a story of increasing fundamentals than it has in a long while.”
While gold’s surge sparked a rush into gold ETFs and bullion funds by retail and institutional investors alike over the past few years, oil prices are likely to be a primary driver on commodity markets this year. Barclay’s Capital Markets expects the value of commodity funds to reach almost half a trillion dollars by the end of 2011, up from a record US$360-billion in 2010.
Over the last month or so, Mr. Stephenson has reduced his exposure to gold and has started to increase his weighting in oil with a focus on producers as well as oil services companies.
But with the mighty U.S. economy revving up, there’s a new girl in town. As gold’s rally falters, oil is beginning to catch the eye of investors again, driving the price toward US$100 a barrel and providing a potential new driver for a stock market rally that is looking a little faded.
“As the world seemed to be falling apart, investors headed to traditional safe havens and gold went up,” said John Stephenson, a portfolio manager at First Asset Investment Management in Toronto. “Now, the world still isn’t a perfect place, but it’s improving and there’s better growth and investors are starting to look at assets that have lagged, oil especially.”
Like all commodities, oil is an investment that is largely dependent on the state of the global economy. But where gold and other precious metals such as silver benefit from economic weakness and uncertainty, oil thrives best when economic conditions are stable and growing.
Both these attributes, stability and growth, have been in short supply since the financial crisis ended in late 2008, particularly in the developed world, where the United States and Europe have struggled to sustain their recoveries.
With two of its major markets underperforming, oil has depended almost entirely on emerging markets to fan its demand. While that has been far from negative for oil, which fell 48 cents to US$89.11 at Friday’s close, it has prevented it from gaining any sustained momentum with investors.
“If you look at oil it has almost entirely been a China story,” Mr. Stephenson said. “But now the U.S. economy is improving, Europe is improving and it’s looking more like a global growth story and a story of increasing fundamentals than it has in a long while.”
While gold’s surge sparked a rush into gold ETFs and bullion funds by retail and institutional investors alike over the past few years, oil prices are likely to be a primary driver on commodity markets this year. Barclay’s Capital Markets expects the value of commodity funds to reach almost half a trillion dollars by the end of 2011, up from a record US$360-billion in 2010.
Over the last month or so, Mr. Stephenson has reduced his exposure to gold and has started to increase his weighting in oil with a focus on producers as well as oil services companies.
